A slower start to the run-in
With grocery sales growth cooling in early September 2026 following a stronger summer, retailers head into the golden quarter with less momentum than the previous three months, making supply chain preparation more, not less, important.
Where preparation usually falls short
Retailers frequently plan the golden quarter around demand forecasts that do not reflect the most recent trading pattern, leading to either overstocking on slower lines or stockouts on the ones that do perform. Supplier lead times for peak season also tend to stretch just when flexibility is needed most.
A practical readiness checklist
- Reforecast demand using the latest, cooler trading data rather than summer peaks
- Confirm supplier peak-season lead times and capacity commitments in writing
- Identify contingency suppliers for the highest-risk, highest-demand product lines before peak trading begins