The headline finding
Despite tariff pressures, global trade did not retrench in 2026, with both US imports and Chinese exports reaching new highs. However, a significant share of the increase came from rising prices rather than more goods actually moving, a distinction that matters far more than the headline growth figure.
Why price-driven growth is a warning sign
If trade value is rising mainly because goods cost more, procurement teams benchmarking against last year's spend may be comparing inflated totals rather than genuine demand growth. That distorts budget planning and can mask a real-terms squeeze on purchasing power.
Adjusting how you read the numbers
Strip price inflation out of your own spend analysis before drawing conclusions about volume trends, and treat headline trade growth statistics with the same scepticism. Buyers who confuse rising cost with rising demand tend to over-commit budget in the wrong categories.
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