A confusing set of numbers
The value of UK construction project starts fell 49% between June and August compared with the previous three months, and was down 28% year-on-year. At the same time, main contract awards increased 45% over the quarter and 120% year-on-year, described by industry analysts as a continued strengthening of the pipeline.
How both can be true at once
Contract awards are a leading indicator of future work; starts reflect projects actually breaking ground now. A surge in awards alongside a slump in starts suggests a backlog is building, which points to a wave of activity landing in a compressed window rather than a smooth, evenly spread pipeline.
Planning for a compressed pipeline
Contractors and clients should plan capacity now for a period when many awarded contracts move to site at once, rather than assuming the current lull in starts will continue. Organisations that secure labour, materials and subcontractor capacity ahead of that surge will be far better placed than those competing for the same resources once it arrives.
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